NOAA
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The 2008 hurricane season was one of the most severe in recent history. Of the 16 named storms last year, eight escalated to hurricanes and five of those were considered severe. All-told, these storms caused more than $54 billion in damages. Leading up to the season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted 12 to 16 storms for the year.
This year, the predictions are much more optimistic. Released on May 21, the 2009 forecast from NOAA predicts nine to 14 named storms. Of these, four to seven are expected to become hurricanes and as many as three could become severe.
These estimates are based on several factors:
| First is the ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995, and which is expected to continue for another decade or two. That's based on large-scale cycles in the Atlantic basin, including enhanced rainfall over west Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear over the ocean regions where hurricanes form. |
A potential El Nino current in the Pacific would also impact the Atlantic and Caribbean hurricane season, making it milder.
Though the agency is not expecting a notably bad season, Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead Atlantic hurricane forecaster, commented that "it only takes one to make it a very bad season." For people who live in hurricane-prone areas, it is vitally important to plan and prepare, in addition to continually monitoring weather forecasts. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke noted that "today, more than 35 million Americans live in regions most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes," and added that "public awareness and public preparedness are the best defenses against a hurricane."
Don't wait: Start preparing for a disaster the eco-friendly way today.
Find out more about environmental politics and issues in Focus Earth: May 23, 2009: New Fuel Standards and Hurricane Forecast.
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